Have we peaked? When will it happen? Oil will last less than a mortgage and Chile will be prepared to spend this energy crisis or the same as education or road works. Because starting from Monday 13 June 2006 will suffer a higher fuel between 29 and 37 pesos per liter experience the price of fuel starting next Monday, an amount that's still depreciated by the Price Stabilization Fund Fuels, said yesterday the National Oil Company (ENAP). With these adjustments, the price of fuel would be around the 650 and 674 pesos per liter.
The era of cheap oil is finished. Growing consensus in the international community to start sooner than later, the fall in oil production. And with it the fear of an escalation in prices and an energy crisis and unprecedented economic.
Imagine a road without traffic jams, no noise, no accidents. A good picture? Or a nefarious? The question that now arises in the media the English company Acciona through an advertising campaign (on account of depletion of energy resources in general) is not the consequence of a previous unknown, and equally disturbing : Is Running Out of Oil?
The latest price hikes for crude oil, which have been even closer to the dreaded figure of $ 100 a barrel, have reignited a controversy relatively old. Of the dark future that awaits the industrialized countries, and with them the rest of the world, when production of the main source energy is beginning to fall hopelessly. Something that, according to some voices (perhaps many) may be occurring at this very moment.
The Hubbert Peak Theory, which has moved from books to everyday vocabulary of thousands of blog entries and dozens of houses in economic analysis, alerts since its creation in 1956 of where the point in time from which oil companies will not get supply of crude oil reserves are exhausted with the discovery of new ones. Or what is the same, the time when oil production begins to decline.
was devised by the geologist for Shell Oil U.S. market, collecting data from wells in the country, adding all the curves of extraction. For the United States, the facts confirmed the date: 1970. Acknowledged his success, Hubbert became a benchmark for subsequent years at the time to answer the question darker facing the planet: when will it happen?
But then ... we have reached the zenith?
The answer is unclear. Since then, Hubbert predicted that oil production globally would reach its maximum in the late twentieth or early twenty-first. And since then inevitably fall. But two decades up or down is a margin too broad, so imitating the geologist, nobody has dared to give an exact date. If until now the nagging question is solved by an ambiguous answer, the situation is beginning to change, and the debate becomes clearer.
are many studies claiming that we are in the peak years, although it is true that, for each report promises that global production will start falling soon, there is another who says that the discovery of new reserves and the development of new extraction techniques get the zenith delay or soften the descent.
think so the oil industry, represented in Spain by the English Association Oil Operators (AOP). His spokesman, Álvaro Mazarr, recalls that in the past, discoveries of new oil reserves have successfully expanded on the horizon, which placed mineral depletion.
And it should happen now: new technology and high oil prices make it available to the industry-and market-new fields, whose operation was previously thought impossible. This estimate, together with the calculation of the current reserves, allowing the AOP and other international organizations to venture that the world does not begin to see falling oil production until at least 2030 and 2040. Despite
this official position, you do not go too far to suppose actually points where the strategy of the major oil companies. So certify to this newspaper a senior operative of a multinational oil, recognizing that these businesses are already thinking of changing its business model, if not already done so. And recommends looking at the behavior of some of the largest producers.
"Get used to more expensive energy"
The consumer attends to the changing and companies like BP Global, which not only incorporates the image of a sunflower in your logo and leads its Internet presence with the heading "BP and sustainability, but also is becoming a very strong presence in the power generation market, especially in Spain, through its subsidiary, BP Solar, one day it might become a parent.
More indirect evidence of the decline. And global policy makers at all levels have launched some time more or less clear messages, such as "have to get used to a more expensive power" (David Vegara Secretary of State for Economics, in an interview with El Pais, 22 May), referring to the fact that the lack of global spare production will boost prices.
international press readers are used in turn for a year as the advertising campaigns undertaken by U.S. giant Chevron, entitled "Will you join us?" ("Will you join us?"), Whose ads can be read clearly: "One thing is clear: the era of easy oil is over. So let's start the debate: how to cover the demand of the world in this century and the next. "
Oil will last less than a mortgage.
"In this century" less than 100 years. And this is confirmed by Wenceslao Martínez del Olmo, senior geologist in the service of English oil company Repsol YPF Argentina, which in a recent article in "Madridmas", a scientific discussion led by the Community of Madrid, gives four decades to attend the final market for oil. Less than last and some mortgages.
"There are still reserves accounted for medium and light oil, so called conventional, on the order of 1,300,000 million barrels, which at the rate of consumption of 80 million barrels per day (30,000 million / year) would ensure 40 years supply, "says Martínez del Olmo, adding later that" some estimates (consumer) suggest that those 40 years will be shortened for the next 20, China, India, Asia, Russia and Africa will double the demand. "
What about the new reserves and new types of oil?
The great hope of the market is, as seen in the discovery and exploitation of new deposits, and the development of technologies to become commercial types of oil derivatives that were previously discarded. Problems begin: the number of barrels in reserves found keeps decreasing annually for three decades, and the size of which are now (especially those of Central Asia) will make enough even to cover the ever increasing demand.
on the "other oils" as those that are mixed with other rocks, its volume is too low in the total reserves (7,500 million barrels, compared to a total of 1,300,000 million) and its extraction is too costly to enable them to ease a crisis of production and the inevitable price hike.
Yet another balm more in the oil futures markets. Or had. Until recently, Saudi Arabia, the world-leading producer held the role of market shock, when demand soared, increasing production. But this is no longer possible because it has no free extractive capacity (produces 100%). This increases the volatility of the market, and any small crisis becomes a strong price.
To make matters worse, the opaque realm of the Persian Gulf says that under its sand dunes are the largest reserves of black gold of the world. The problem is that only Saudi Aramco, the state company, knows if this statement is true or not.
A half technical half economic book, "Twilight in the Desert: the coming collapse of Saudi oil and the global economy" ("Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy" in the original) has become a best seller in all world. In it the author, Matt Simmons, a renowned expert in the energy sector and especially in the field of oil production, casts shadows on Saudi Arabia enough to doubt their ability to largely remain the world's oil pantry.
Oil can only go up.
Because if Simmons is right, the huge reserves of this country, the world's largest producer, would be neither as large nor as profitable as the Saudi monarchy sought. Even worse, by the geological nature of the oil fields where oil is removed too quickly, the site exhausted earlier. And according to Simmons, the archaic monarchy has been forced in recent times to deal with too much frenzy making machine petrodollars, strangling the goose that lays golden eggs. So the expert does not get tired of asking for more transparency in markets, to get to know the actual figures of production and reserves on the planet. Only then could know, at the global level, how much oil there is and where, under what conditions can be extracted, and above all, for how long.
The problem, if anything, is far from resolved with a simple date. Because it's not ascertain when the oil eventually, but above However, when production begins to decline and what the consequences of that fall. In a world that consumes 84 million barrels a day, and produces 84.5-just 0.6% more ", there is little to do but sit waiting for the price of oil soars in the next five years from the current $ 70 to well over 100. Or 200 if we pay attention to some analysts specializing in the energy sector. The potential economic impact of these prices are too important to disregard them.
This is a contribution of:
The electronic newspaper "El Pais, one of the most prestigious in Spain highlights this unique story on the oil, is great. I also suggest watching this video of the depletion of energy, excellent.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcHulfNRpJU&search =
Edgar Ocampo
Pablo Ramírez T. (PD)
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